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Diseases

Covid-19 Pandemic: Are We Heading Towards an Endemic?

The Covid-19 pandemic has been here for nearly a year and there is no vaccine available against the lethal virus. Health experts and scientists are not sure how much longer the virus will disrupt our lives and spread throughout the world. Meanwhile, there is some speculation that the coronavirus pandemic might turn into an endemic in the coming time.

The virus is spreading once again in different countries that reported a surge in Covid-19 cases. In this case, restrictions and lockdown can only do so much. This might help control the outbreak but it will not eliminate the Covid-19 pandemic from the world.

The countries that can cut off from the outside world in terms of traveling successfully eliminated the virus from their region. Meanwhile, a huge population of humans is still at risk of contracting the virus one way or another. This means that the coronavirus cases can surge anytime in any country and the risk is still lingering upon us.

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Some countries are trying to achieve herd immunity to control the coronavirus outbreak in their region. Herd immunity is the phenomenon in which enough people gain immunity to the disease which results in vanishing the disease from that population. However, this might not be the case with the Covid-19 pandemic. It can help reduce the cases but it does not mean that the virus will be gone forever.

As long as people keep interacting with each other, there is a risk of coronavirus outbreak. It is not possible in human nature to isolate everyone completely, thus the danger is always there. Meanwhile, there is a possibility that the number of coronavirus cases become stable and only infect a predictable number of individuals. This will make the situation a coronavirus endemic.

Most of the infections in the world are endemic that spread in different regions. The infection spreads in that particular region when the conditions are suitable for that particular pathogen. This might occur when the infection is eliminated from the rest of the world through effective control measures. Most of the mosquito-spread infections such as malaria fall into this category.

In theory, an endemic infection can be defined as a disease that must spread to at least one person from the infected individual. The reproduction number recorded is 1 in this case i.e. R=1. This means that the R factor will increase from 1 when the particular cases of that infection are increasing.

Also, the reproduction number drops from 1 when the cases decrease in that region. This can occur through preventive measures and other disease control programs such as vaccines.

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These endemic diseases can spread more quickly during a particular season. Experts suggest that the coronavirus might spread even more during winter due to several factors. The flu season will also contribute to an increase in coronavirus cases, as suggested by health experts.

The Covid-19 pandemic will not eliminate as long as there are infection cases in the world. There is always a possibility that the virus can spread even from a single infected individual. Thus, experts believe that the world might head towards an endemic since the virus does not seem to eliminate soon from the world.

Bisma Nasar

I am a freelance writer and my field of expertise is Microbiology and Genetics. I also write about advancements in medicine and general health.

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